RASMUSSEN PREDICTS 55-SEAT GAIN FOR GOP – AT 10:05 A.M. ET:  From Human Events: 

Newport Beach, Calif.—Nationally-recognized pollster Scott Rasmussen last night predicted that Republicans would gain 55 seats in races for the U.S. House of Representatives November 2—much more than the 39 needed for a Republican majority in the House for the first time since 2006.

But the man whose Rasmussen Reports polling is watched carefully by politicians and frequently quoted by the punditocracy said that whether Republicans gain the ten seats they need to take control of the Senate is in question.

“Republicans should have 48 seats [after the elections next month], Democrats 47, and five seats could slide either way,” said Rasmussen in his banquet address at the Western Conservative Political Action Conference. He was referring to seats in five states in which the Senate race this year he considers too close to call: California, Illinois, Washington, West Virginia, and Nevada (or “that mudwrestling contest,” as Rasmussen described the race between Republican Sharron Angle and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid).

COMMENT:  Rasmussen calls it straight, and has a solid track record.  His predictions are in line with a number of other pollsters.  Of course, it's a midterm, and predicting turnout is a bit trickier than in presidential years, but I certainly think Scott Rasmussen is very much in the ball park. 

I'm frustrated by the probability that the GOP will fall short in the Senate, while picking up an impressive number of seats.  The Senate is where Supreme Court nominations go to live or die.  If I had a choice between taking the House or Senate, I'd choose the Senate, for that very supreme reason.  I want to see our side have the needed blocking power to stop some loony Obama choice for the high court.  We'll be getting closer on November 2nd, but not quite there.

October 17, 2010